Central banks’ decisions loom amidst global uncertainty, Octa Broker offers its view
Media OutReach Newswire 
However, this week’s announcements arrive amidst a backdrop of considerable global uncertainty, stemming from the flared-up conflict between Israel and Iran. This geopolitical tension in the Middle East has already exerted an upward pressure on oil prices, leading to increased concerns about inflation and raising the probability of a global economic recession. Consequently, investors might be surprised by the tone and content of the upcoming policy statements. While the prevailing market assumption is that most central banks (with the notable exception of the SNB) will maintain their current interest rates, the escalating inflation risks could prompt some central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance than anticipated, potentially leading to unexpected shifts in their monetary policy outlooks. This makes it more crucial than ever for market participants to closely monitor all announcements, accompanying policy reports, and subsequent press conferences for any clues regarding future policy trajectories.
Bank of Japan
BOJ’s decision will hit the wires in the early hours during the Asian trading session on 17 June. Unlike other major banks, BoJ has embarked on a path toward monetary tightening. Last year, it concluded its yield curve control (YCC) policy and initiated a gradual reduction of its substantial bond purchases. These actions were part of an ongoing effort to transition the Japanese economy away from a decade of significant stimulus. Furthermore, the BOJ increased short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, based on the assessment that Japan was progressing towards sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target.
However, potential risks to Japan’s export-dependent economy stemming from U.S. tariffs have led to a revision in market expectations regarding the timing of the BOJ’s next rate hike. In addition, the Japanese bond market has been under severe stress lately, as long-term yields reached record high. Specifically, in Japan’s 20-year government bond auction on 20 May, the demand was very weak and the bid-to-cover ratio fell to just 2.50, its lowest point since 2012.
Consequently, market attention is currently focused on whether the BOJ will maintain or reduce the pace of its current bond tapering. Investors are also keenly awaiting any signals from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda concerning the potential resumption of rate increases. The general expectation is that the BOJ will largely stick to its current tapering plan for now, but it may consider a slower pace of reduction starting from the next fiscal year.
‘I believe the BOJ may not be able to delay rate hikes for an extended period due to inflationary pressures from elevated food costs, particularly for staple rice, so I think Governor Ueda may deliver a more hawkish tone that the market currently expects’, says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker. Indeed, Japan’s core inflation has exceeded the BOJ’s 2% target for over three years, reaching a more than two-year high of 3.5% in April, largely driven by a 7% surge in food prices. Moreover, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses a risk of further increasing Japan’s import costs.
Kazuo Ueda is expected to hold a news conference at 6:30 a.m. UTC on 17 June to explain the BOJ’s policy decision.
Federal Reserve
The Fed will issue its monetary policy updates at 6:00 p.m. UTC and hold a press conference at 6:30 p.m. UTC. The decision—especially the accompanying Statement—and the latest Economic Projections by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may potentially surprise the market, resulting in above-normal volatility.
Traders expect the Fed to leave its policy rate unchanged in the range of 4.25–4.50%. However, the market usually moves not because of the decision itself, but rather the new details revealed in the FOMC Statement as well as during the press conference. In addition, traders will be paying close attention to the Fed’s economic outlook and the so-called ‘dot plot’, seeking to understand the central bank’s policy trajectory. The FOMC dot plot is a chart that visually represents the projections of each FOMC member for the target range of the federal funds rate. It is updated on a quarterly basis and tends to have a major impact on financial markets, serving as a critical piece of forward guidance that can significantly influence bond yields, equity prices, and currency valuations as investors recalibrate their expectations for future interest rate movements and the overall trajectory of monetary policy.
‘It is not going to be an easy decision for the Fed’, says Kar Yong Ang. ‘They are balancing between a weakening labour market, still elevated inflation, uncertainty regarding trade tariffs—and now the Middle East crisis and the oil price shock. Overall, the market is positioned for a relatively dovish Fed, so traders will be waiting for hints about whether the Fed might be poised to lower rates in the coming months. And this is where the market may be disappointed’.
In other words, there’s a significant risk that Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, could adopt a more hawkish stance than the market anticipates. This would likely lead to considerable downward pressure on equity prices and present substantial upside risks for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). At the same time, even if the Fed does deliver a hawkish message, gold (XAUUSD) is unlikely to see a significant downturn, as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran will almost certainly sustain strong safe-haven demand, counteracting any typical negative pressure from a hawkish Fed.
Swiss National Bank
SNB is due to make its policy decision on 19 June. It is the only central bank whose rate cut is almost 100% guaranteed. The debate is not whether the SNB will cut the rates, but to what extent. Recent disinflationary pressures within the Swiss economy have led markets to anticipate a larger-than-usual 50-basis point (bps) reduction in rates.
‘Despite the Swiss headline CPI [Consumer Price Index] recently turning negative, I think the SNB will still opt for a smaller, 25-bp cut. Inflation shock coming from the Mideast conflict and policymarkers’ recent rhetoric suggest that the SNB will be careful not to overshoot with policy easing’, says Kar Yong Ang. Indeed, SNB board member Petra Tschudin recently highlighted that achieving medium-term price stability is more critical to their policy choices and that a single data point (i.e., latest inflation report) is not substantial enough to alter the current policy outlook. Moreover, with the SNB’s policy options being quite narrow now (the deposit rate bottomed out at -0.75% during the previous rate-cutting cycle), a 25-basis point rate cut looks like the most sensible choice for now.
On balance, the most probable outcome remains a 25bp rate cut. While the Swiss franc (CHF) might experience an initial sharp rise as the market corrects its 50bp cut predictions, this reaction would likely be fleeting. The central bank’s accompanying dovish commentary would likely ensure that any strengthening of the franc is quickly reversed.
Bank of England
BoE will announce its monetary policy decision on 19 June, a few hours after the SNB. At its previous meeting in March, the BoE kept its key rate at 4.50% with only one Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member calling for a rate cut. In its guidance, the BoE stressed that it was taking a ‘gradual and careful approach’ to rate cuts due to a lack of visibility about the inflation outlook because of the rise in trade tensions. Since then, however, the U.S. and the U.K. agreed to a new trade deal, but the U.K. CPI continued to rise, while GBP/USD reached a fresh three-year high.
‘The latest U.K. CPI figures will be released on Wednesday, before the BoE decision, and I actually think that they will have a much bigger impact on the market than BoE’s verdict itself’, says Kar Yong Ang, adding that if the CPI report indicates a slowdown in inflation, the optimal strategy would be to go long EUR/GBP.
Overall, the BoE is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, especially considering that ongoing hostilities in the Middle East have introduced new long-term inflation risks. Indeed, according to the latest interest rate swaps market data, investors are pricing in only a 10% chance of a 25-bp rate cut by the BoE this Thursday. However, traders are advised to monitor any shift in BoE’s MPC rate voting. Previously, eight members voted to hold the rates unchanged, but this week’s decision may feature more doves than hawks.
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