Absa Bank Plc hosts Macro Economic Outlook 2025

• Absa Bank Hosts the 2025 Macro Economic Outlook,Risk Management and Structured Investments Solutions Forum;

Absa Bank Kenya hosted customers, peers, and financial market stakeholders for a weeklong 2025 Economic forum that offered in-depth macro analysis and explored financing opportunities and yield-enhancing strategies in a bid to help clients build resilience and growth.

Speaking during the forums, Absa Bank Kenya PLC CEO and MD Mr. Abdi Mohamed said, “At Absa, we are deeply invested in your story because it truly matters to us. As a collective, we have an ambition to be a financial services group that Africa can be proud of.

We are committed to the growth of this continent and the prosperity of our people, and we believe that bringing these kinds of insights is our contribution to the reforms and policy discussions that need to take place in our continent.”

The insightful sessions gave bank analysts, financial institutions (both banking and non-banking ones) , importers, exporters, regulators and market investors an opportunity to unpack complex financial instruments that can be crucial in navigating current volatility, while exploring alternative funding opportunities as well yield enhancement instruments as we enter a low-interest rate environment.

Useful data points

Absa Bank Senior Economist Phumelele Mbiyo gave an insightful macro analysis, with some key numbers

4.9% GDP: Kenya’s GDP is expected to grow at 4.9 percent in 2025, characterised by sectoral rotation from agriculture to construction and financial services.

4.5% Inflation: Kenya’s inflation is expected to average 4.5 percent this year with restrained core inflation, which has been stable around 2 percent since July 2024, while the upward pressure from food prices is expected to ease as the impact of light La Nina eases off after quarter one.

9% Policy Rate: The Central Bank of Kenya is expected to cut the Central Bank Rate down to 9 percent by the third quarter of the year and leave it unchanged for the remainder of this year. This is expected to lower the cost of borrowing and boost private sector credit expenditure.

Key pointers of sectoral rotation:

• Agriculture’s contribution to GDP growth is falling: The contribution of agriculture to Kenya’s GDP growth has been falling over the last year and is expected to take a hit from the La Nina phenomena. The weather phenomena is characterised as weak and its impact on food prices may peak in the first quarter this year when it is projected to be at its most intense.
• Construction sector is recovering: The construction sector had stagnated after peaking in 2022. The sector is, however, now picking up and has shown recovery over the last few months.
• Financial service sector boost: The financial services sector had taken a hit when the Central Bank of Kenya raised interest rates. Now, monetary policy has shifted after CBK cut rates consistently since August last year, signaling lower borrowing costs and recovery in the private sector credit.
• Foreign Currency: The Kenya shilling is expected to remain stable, backed by international financial inflows that have boosted foreign exchange reserves to near-record levels. Kenya’s comfortable forex reserves and access to international financing, including foreign portfolio inflows to the local bond market, multilateral loans from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, bilateral loans, and the Eurobond market continue to ward off volatility and have bolstered investor confidence.