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- Below-Normal Rains and Warmer -Than -Usual Conditions are Expected Over Most Parts of The Greater Horn of Africa;
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), WMO, and development partners, has officially released the seasonal climate outlook for October to December (OND) 2025 during the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 71).
The forum brought together experts and decision-makers to assess the impact of the June to September season and to present the consolidated regional outlook for the upcoming OND 2025 rainfall season.
OND is an important rainfall season for the equatorial Greater Horn of Africa, contributing up to 70% of the annual total in parts of Kenya and Somalia.
The forecast points to a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most parts of the region except parts of south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western parts of Uganda, where wetter than usual conditions are forecasted.
Key highlights of the OND 2025 Outlook
Rainfall Forecast
- Below-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with the strongest signal over eastern parts of the region, including southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania.
- On the other hand, above-normal rainfall is expected in western parts of the region, particularly in south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Uganda, northern Somalia, and parts of northern Rwanda.
- There is a high likelihood (>70%) of exceeding 300 mm of rainfall in parts of western Kenya, southern Uganda, much of Rwanda and Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.
- Regions such as south-western Ethiopia, northwestern Kenya, central to northern Uganda, most of Rwanda, and western Burundi present equal chances for rainfall.
- A delayed onset is predicted over the eastern parts of the region, particularly in southern Somalia, eastern/central Kenya, and parts of southern and eastern Tanzania.
- In contrast, early to normal onset is expected over much of the western parts of the region, including south-western Ethiopia, much of southern South Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, much of Burundi, Rwanda, and western as well as central Tanzania.
Temperature Outlook
- Generally, the forecast indicates an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average surface temperatures across the GHA, with the highest likelihood over the eastern part of the region.
- Average to cooler-than-average conditions are expected over cross-border areas of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, as well as localised areas of north-western Sudan.
H.E. Mr. Mohamed Ware, Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD, emphasised the need for collaboration, stating,“The Greater Horn of Africa is at the frontline of the climate crisis.
Climate information must reach the last mile, and only through collaboration and early action can we turn forecasts into meaningful messages that drive timely action.”
Dr. Deborah M. Barasa, Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Kenya, noted, “Bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information, and a united regional approach.
Kenya remains committed to supporting regional frameworks that strengthen climate resilience across our communities.”
Mr. Edward Muriuki, Acting Director, Kenya Meteorologica Department (KMD) stated, “Early warning systems save lives only when they reach everyone, including the most vulnerable.
At KMD, we remain committed to providing accurate and timely climate services that support communities to plan, adapt, and build resilience.”
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